Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 13.535881 15.492570 17.602096 20.041658 22.781219 25.758661 29.235550
2025-03-09 10.587142 13.220991 16.282625 20.089021 24.677800 30.013753 36.669678
2025-03-16 8.938078 11.812284 15.319553 19.885627 25.641155 32.620371 41.685428
2025-03-23 7.838984 10.895132 14.787990 20.064767 26.978325 35.669340 47.353842
2025-03-30 7.180527 10.420391 14.701082 20.704986 28.830431 39.355775 53.915477
2025-04-06 6.356729 9.613823 14.069782 20.524259 29.529163 41.524027 58.560132
2025-04-13 5.409929 8.521651 12.926601 19.510640 28.970348 41.913609 60.765920
2025-04-20 5.033195 8.210676 12.842215 19.952360 30.425114 45.081315 66.883426
2025-04-27 4.688819 7.907941 12.732038 20.326550 31.776338 48.140227 72.963518
2025-05-04 4.266145 7.438459 12.325306 20.212572 32.379385 50.129593 77.574329
2025-05-11 3.855446 6.945841 11.836766 19.924371 32.680270 51.662778 81.555203
2025-05-18 3.565456 6.622834 11.584705 19.976052 33.484647 53.956595 86.738626
2025-05-25 3.327117 6.372069 11.439168 20.201540 34.595198 56.802186 92.950112
2025-06-01 3.076841 6.076848 11.196092 20.247494 35.416917 59.238166 98.644447
2025-06-08 2.810722 5.725238 10.824962 20.043244 35.801808 60.983085 103.304464
2025-06-15 2.633796 5.520247 10.689041 20.223460 36.820395 63.764977 109.705128
2025-06-22 2.542793 5.468814 10.818752 20.868294 38.647226 67.920652 118.471628
2025-06-29 2.340583 5.181286 10.497205 20.686261 39.037178 69.725270 123.465948
2025-07-06 2.047162 4.681956 9.743085 19.665438 37.895907 68.913054 124.078107
2025-07-13 1.964544 4.606666 9.784119 20.110303 39.371180 72.570487 132.308341
2025-07-20 1.879353 4.517632 9.790682 20.487154 40.736806 76.088118 140.426454
2025-07-27 1.745725 4.311225 9.549776 20.372367 41.190265 78.033701 145.908999
2025-08-03 1.605106 4.075280 9.230825 20.082116 41.295761 79.361935 150.355984